Your trigger rate
0.576 points to go.
Today's estimate for you: 7.256% rate, 7.376% APR, for a 30-year fixed refinance at 70.01–75% LTV. Estimates for Oct 6, 2026; national until local data arrives.
- Payment now
- $3,073
- A new 30-year loan
- $2,812, $261 less a month
- Over the same 27 years
- $2,903, $170 less a month
Closing costs: $6,985: $2,000 plus the 1.21 points today's estimate is priced at. The interest saved repays them in month 35 with a new 30-year loan, and in month 33 over the same 27 years.
Interest still to pay over the loan's life: $16,806 more with a new 30-year loan, $55,060 less over the same 27 years; with the closing costs, $23,791 more and $48,075 less.
Refinancing today would lower your payment by $170 a month over the same 27 years, but on average it pays to wait for 6.68%.
How the trigger works
Refinancing now gives up the chance to refinance lower later, so it pays only when today's rate is far enough below yours. The trigger is the closed-form answer of Agarwal, Driscoll and Laibson: it assumes a 10% yearly chance that you move, 3% inflation, a 5% real discount rate and a yearly swing in mortgage rates of 1.09 points. Payments are principal and interest only. The method in full
Estimate, not an offer. Built from Average prime offer rates (FFIEC), week of Oct 5, 2026; Loan-level price adjustments (Fannie Mae), dated Sep 30, 2026; Daily Treasury par yield curve (U.S. Treasury), Oct 6, 2026; Refinance trigger (Agarwal, Driscoll and Laibson), dated Oct 6, 2026.
Average prime offer rates published by the FFIEC for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau; a U.S. government work in the public domain.
Borrower adjustments derived from Fannie Mae's Loan-Level Price Adjustment Matrix dated September 30, 2026. Fannie Mae does not endorse these estimates.
10-year par yield from the U.S. Department of the Treasury's daily par yield curve rates.
The trigger follows Agarwal, Driscoll and Laibson, "Optimal Mortgage Refinancing: A Closed-Form Solution", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2013, with that paper's assumptions except the tax rate.